And Pennsylvania has a bunch of electoral votes that have been blue since Bush the Elder won the presidency.
This polling quantifies why my gut tells me Giuliani is a strong candidate here. While I am sympathetic with the Christian community and those protective of our 2nd Amendment rights, I live– just barely– in the RINO Philadelphia suburbs.
Many assume the history of Giuliani’s social positions are poison in a national GOP primary. Where I live, though, those positions are assets among nominal Republicans, which describes most Republicans in my neck of the woods. In PA elections the suburbs are crucial. Rendell’s dominance with this demographic leads to his landslides, and the fact Santorum got slaughtered by those voters sent him packing to a think tank job. Of course, I’d rather run the America’s Enemies program than be a Senator anyway.
Giuliani can win these voters, obviously. In a primary he could also win the base in the middle of the state because, as it has been observed elsewhere, he is not actively running against their social positions and as an executive will functionally perform as as effectively as a Huckabee would anyway.
Polling like this, I think, inspires the national organization of the Democrat party to be uninterested in running against Giuliani in a general election. It follows, then, that they would be uninterested in moving Pennsylvania’s primary up.