The most recent Quinnipiac University poll voters in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio indicates that Giuliani continues to lead the pack for the potential GOP nomination. Having taken a brief look at the internals of this poll and the most recent preceding one in PA– taken a month ago– there is plenty for Team Rudy to be happy about.
First, much like the with the recent WSJ/NBC poll, Giuliani’s support in the GOP primary has dropped about four points in the face of the Fred Thompson love offensive, in this case in PA from 33 points to 29. This is pretty close to the margin of error.
Second, Giuliani is the only GOP candidate that beats all the potential democrat nominees in these swing states. And you know which theoretical democrat nominee seems to do the best against him? Al Gore! I dearly hope Al takes a look at these numbers and decides he must get in. All his global warming hysteria aside, if he manages to channel at least part of the senator he was prior to being Bill Clinton’s veep he would be the most conservative democrat running. Which, of course, says more about his party than his brand of Euro-Green nanny statesmanship.
Well, the conventional wisdom first said there’s no way Giuliani could attract conservative GOP primary voters. That seems to be patently untrue.
Then the conventional wisdom said Fred Thompson would erode his support. Well, Fred has been ubiquitous for the last month, and deeply conservative primary voters do appear to want to like him badly, as evidenced by the fact he is winning conservative straw polls the way Giuliani wins every other poll. But Thompson only scored 6 points in this Quinnipiac poll in PA, about 20% of his total at the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference straw poll. So it appears that piece of conventional wisdom may be a little off the mark as well.
What surprises me is the conventional wisdom seems unable to pick up on what I think is manifestly obvious: Rudy Giuliani’s positions come close to reflecting those of the average American voter. The hardworking and loyal men and women who love their families and country and try to think the best of their neighbors. The person who goes to Church every once in a while, and keeps meaning to get there more often. The person who doesn’t live in DC, New York City, Los Angeles, or Chicago. [Which is funny, seeing how he is a Manhattanite “down to the soles of his shoes”] The people who love law and order, because they aren’t doing anything wrong.
It is surprising to me pundits just have trouble seeing Rudy Giuliani appeals to voters because he seems like one of us, just perhaps with much greater leadership skills and the outsized ego that comes with it. A man of great aspirations and nothing but the best intentions who sometimes falls short, but never, ever stops trying his best, at least partly because he manifestly loves his country and he loves America.
UPDATE: Forgot to give y’all a link to the actual poll. Sorry. Here.