Monthly Archives: August 2007

Team Giuliani Media Team Includes PA Firm

Pittsurgh media firm BrabenderCox  [warning: site auto-launches a sequence w/some sound] has been selected as one of the firms handling the Giuliani campaign’s media operations.  They must know what they’re doing because they have the hip run-on name!  [HT The WaPo’s Fix via Pennsyltucky]

With former clients along the political spectrum from Lincoln Chafee to Rick Santorum, there’s not much to read into this ideologically.  They will be teaming with Scott Howell and Company, and Chris Mattola and Associates, who apparently did not get the memo on naming conventions.

The partner handling the Giuliani account at Scott Howell has extensive experience in South Caroloina, which is nice.  Our PA friends will likely be more involved– now– in crafting the IA and NH messages.

Scott Howell and Company, by the way, did this ad in the Corker / Ford TN race back in 2006.  I think that ad is pretty awesome.  Of course, I have always been a fan of red meat designed to increase turnout.  One would assume the Giuliani campaign is looking to find a more pursuasive tone…

Pure Distilled Quinnipiac PA Goodness

Given my remarks below, I can’t really explain why Clinton is opening up an even bigger lead in PA over Obama in this PA Quinnipiac poll.  Of course, I can’t really explain why we should care about PA primary rankings either, given the fact that the nominees will be working on their convention speeches by the time we vote.

On the GOP side, Giuliani of course is still well in the lead.  It appears Romney may have enjoyed a small bump, but it was actually at the expense of Fred Thompson.  In fact, as it stands now if Romney took ALL the voters away from Thompson AND McCain he would still be almost 10 points behind Giuliani.

In potential general election matchups, the story in PA is the story in all swing states.  Hizzoner is the only potential GOP candidate with a prayer of beating a democrat for the White House.

Patrick Murphy to Endorse Obama

Giuliani leads all candidates in securing endorsements from PA’s sitting congresscritters.  I have always assumed this is because GOP legislators facing tough races want to align themselves with a presidential candidate who polls well.  In fact, the attraction of Giuliani may be that of all the presidential candidates he has the most cross-party appeal, especially amongst independents.

I have always said, though, in this Commonwealth Obama presents the strongest competition.  Clinton still polls the best, but my gut tells me Obama has the potential to absolutely gut Giuliani’s moderate GOP support in the suburban Philadelphia counties, and these counties are to PA what PA, OH, and FL are to national elections.

Congressman Patrick Murphy has, I think, just indicated he agrees.  He represents Buck County in Congress.  He is also the only Iraq War vet in that august body, and is viewed as a rising star in the Democrat party.  He has also come out in support of Obama, saying the freshman senator from Illinois best represents Murphy’s own feelings on Iraq.

It is news to me Murphy believes the surge– which currently appears to be working– was always a bad idea.  It is also news to me that he thinks troop deployments should have little to do with what General Petraus has to say on the efficacy of the surge.  Finally, it is news to me that turning Iraq into a genocidal crapstorm worse than Vietnam in the mid-seventies seems like a good idea to him.  These are the positions of the political waif Obama, and apparently the positions of Congressman Murphy.

On one thing, though, Murphy and I agree.  In the Commonwealth of PA Obama is a force.

Squaring the PA GOP Circle

Take a look at this piece if you have a moment.  It reports on events in Bucks County, where a GOP Township Supervisor sent an e-mail to PA Reps urging them to lean on “courthouse employees and consultants” for help in registering new GOP voters.It went on to point out “Many people owe their jobs to GOP leadership…Professionals, consultants, contractors, and loyal GOP supporters have benefited handsomely.”

This seems to me entirely typical of the behaviour of PA’s GOP leadership.  This is exactly the sort of thing that motivates so many in the GOP grassroots to dislike their own party’s alleged leaders.  In what definition of conservatism does it make sense to view government as a gravy train for “professionals, consultants, and contractors”?

Even if it sadly represents political reality, to what levels of corruption has this guy sunk that it seems normal to explicitly point it out in a freaking e-mail?  I am not saying it was merely impolitic, I am suggesting that this level of logrolling is so endemic that Supervisor Vincent Deon must have found it unremarkable.

Oddly, though, the GOP leadership is still, in fact, the GOP leadership.  So campaigns like Giuliani’s must out of political necessity make allies of these corrupt cronies.  At the same time, though, presidential campaigns must realize the most motivated GOP voters are NOT allies of this cabal.

How does a campaign square this circle in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania?  It seems the Giuliani campaign enjoys a natural affinity with the grassroots, so they have spent a fair amount of time cultivating the established leadership.  In this Commonwealth, at least, they would do well to slowly put the breaks on the latter before it alienates the former.

Giuliani Dirt Having Effect Amongst Dems?

I thought it was more interesting that the Quinnipiac poll I posted about yesterday indicated an endorsement from a gay rights group or abortion rights group appears to hurt more than help a presidential candidate.  So I missed the fact that the recent scurrilous Giuliani mudslinging– his wife is an alleged gold-digger, and he cared more about a bank’s gold than firefighters at Ground Zero– has had an effect on his numbers with Democrats.

While these charges range from the irrelevant to the insane, it does appear they have significantly driven up his unfavorability ratings, at least amongst democrats.  See Josh’s analysis in the Morning Call here.

One would assume those voters swayed by these sort of sensational and vapid attacks are pretty easily swayed.  Their analytical thinking skills are obviously compromised.  So one would also assume once they get a dose of the real Giuliani they will change their minds again.  So this analyst doesn’t see a problem.

As I said yesterday, in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania the bigger problem will be with labor unions…

Quinnipiac Swing State Poll: Rudy Clearly Best GOP Candidate

Quinnipiac has issued their always illuminating swing state presidential poll, which covers PA, OH, and FL.

In it, Giuliani holds comfortable leads for the GOP nod in all of the states.  Not that PA matters in this regard, but FL certainly does, with its pre Super-Tuesday primary.  Thompson is the closest competition, and this pundit thinks his numbers will automatically deflate as soon as he demonstrates his dillentantish approach to voters in a real campaign.  Look at this Giuliani video from a town hall shindig in Iowa.  Does anyone really think Fred grasps details to that level?

Of course, none of that matters, right?  You have to do well in IA and NH, right?  Oh, wait.  And SC too.  That state moved up even further.  Next thing you know we’ll be having primaries before we’ve woken up from our triptofan Thanksgiving naps.

Point is, people are going to eventually have to stop flogging tired old reasons why Giuliani can’t win the GOP nomination.  He clearly can.  To pretend otherwise is just foolish.

This poll also proves the point that Giulianin remains the most electable GOP candidate.  He’s the only GOP cadidate that can poll ahead of Obama and Hillary with any sort of consistency.

Finally, for the best analytic part:  Being associated with a special interest group of any sort seems to be a losing proposition in these states, except for Big Labor in PA.  Big Labor hates Giuliani down to their surly, shadetree toes.  So this may not bode well.

But what is interesting is getting a pro-gays rights endorsement loses a candidate more votes than it gains them.  So does getting a conservative Christian endorsement.  Somewhat contradictorally, so does getting an endorsement from the pro-abortion lobby.

Yet pundits keep telling me Giuliani can’t win because he down the middle on all that stuff:  Pro-civil unions, but anti full-on gay marriage.  Abortion makes him squemish, but he’d rather let rational courts guide us to a federal solution.  He clearly is a law and order guy, but his social life does not exactly make him the first choice for keynote speaker at an Assemblies of God confab.

In other words, he’s pretty much like most American voters.  Why wouldn’t he win?  What more analytical evidence to we need to confirm not only his electability, but the fact that most Americans actually agree with him?  This is a representative republic, right?  At least in most states?

Rudy Leads the Pack in PA Endorsements

Two more PA congresscritters have come out early to endorse Mayor Giuliani’s bid to be the next president of the United States.  Link here, from the ever indispensable PA Ave.

Not that this amounts to much, as our primary is currently as influential as an Assembies of God missionary at Christopher Hitchens’ house, but Giuliani leads the presidential pack when it comes to congressional endorsements in Pennsylvania.

Gerlach is also my representative, so this is a clear reflection of the power and influence weilded by PA for Hizzoner.