Quinnipiac has issued their always illuminating swing state presidential poll, which covers PA, OH, and FL.
In it, Giuliani holds comfortable leads for the GOP nod in all of the states. Not that PA matters in this regard, but FL certainly does, with its pre Super-Tuesday primary. Thompson is the closest competition, and this pundit thinks his numbers will automatically deflate as soon as he demonstrates his dillentantish approach to voters in a real campaign. Look at this Giuliani video from a town hall shindig in Iowa. Does anyone really think Fred grasps details to that level?
Of course, none of that matters, right? You have to do well in IA and NH, right? Oh, wait. And SC too. That state moved up even further. Next thing you know we’ll be having primaries before we’ve woken up from our triptofan Thanksgiving naps.
Point is, people are going to eventually have to stop flogging tired old reasons why Giuliani can’t win the GOP nomination. He clearly can. To pretend otherwise is just foolish.
This poll also proves the point that Giulianin remains the most electable GOP candidate. He’s the only GOP cadidate that can poll ahead of Obama and Hillary with any sort of consistency.
Finally, for the best analytic part: Being associated with a special interest group of any sort seems to be a losing proposition in these states, except for Big Labor in PA. Big Labor hates Giuliani down to their surly, shadetree toes. So this may not bode well.
But what is interesting is getting a pro-gays rights endorsement loses a candidate more votes than it gains them. So does getting a conservative Christian endorsement. Somewhat contradictorally, so does getting an endorsement from the pro-abortion lobby.
Yet pundits keep telling me Giuliani can’t win because he down the middle on all that stuff: Pro-civil unions, but anti full-on gay marriage. Abortion makes him squemish, but he’d rather let rational courts guide us to a federal solution. He clearly is a law and order guy, but his social life does not exactly make him the first choice for keynote speaker at an Assemblies of God confab.
In other words, he’s pretty much like most American voters. Why wouldn’t he win? What more analytical evidence to we need to confirm not only his electability, but the fact that most Americans actually agree with him? This is a representative republic, right? At least in most states?