Quinnipiac University does a monthly poll of swing states: PA, OH, and FL.
The big picture? Hillary and Giuliani appear to remain the favorites for their respective nominations. Rudy’s matchups w/her in a general election are looking marginally worse. Still close, but he’s now behind her in all three. The upside of this? He’s still way better than all the other GOP candidates.
Vis a vis the GOP race, the big news is this: Giuliani *still* is doing well amongst evangelicals. He leads amongst them in OH and PA, and comes in second to Fred Thompson in Florida. I say that’s more a product of the fact that Thompson is Southern than anything else. It’s easy for us northerners to think of Florida as Miami and Orlando. Travel around the state, though, and you’ll see many parts are every bit as “southern” as Mississippi.
Also interesting to note is that in hypothetical general election matchups the GOP candidate that comes closest to performing as well as Giuliani is not Romney or Thompson, but McCain. So stay in the game, John! It’s good for Hizzoner.
Aside: They seem to like Obama a lot in OH. It seems it can’t catch a break in the Dem. primary, there, but he’s arguably stronger than Hillary in a general. Weird. I guess they just hate the GOP that much.
Consider yourselves warned, Commonwealth GOP leaders in PA. You guys aren’t all that different….wait….I’m one of those guys, now, since I’m now a ward leader. Well, at least I’ve warned myself!