Category Archives: Democratic Super-Delegates

Tomorrow is Primary Day in PA

Well, team, tomorrow is primary day in Pennsylvania.  As you may have noticed, some of my projects here did not quite ripen.  Work, fishing, and volunteering for Admiral Steve Kantrowitz, who is running for PA Senate 19, have intervened.

There’s nothing in this post for voters in the Dem. primary.  Your vote matters, and if you’ve been paying attention there’s not much I can tell you about each candidate.  I could tell you about what PA’s superdelegates are doing, but that shouldn’t be part of your equation.

As for those casting a meaningless PA presidential primary ballot, my recommendation is this:  Remember, top of the ballot is legally meaningless, and the state GOP likes it that way.  Down the ballot you will vote for delegates to the convention, who will cast a vote for your district in St. Paul.

If you live in my district, vote for Jim McHale.  If you have the opportunity to vote for additional people, leave it blank.  Generally, avoid most of the people pledged to Ron Paul, although God bless them for running and absolutely vote for them if you dig Dr. Paul.  If you don’t, though, go to this page, also look at the GOP sample ballot you can get at your polling place, and vote for a person who is not endorsed by the party, and is not a Ron Paul supporter.

In my research I have determined it is those people who are most likely to have your district’s best interests at heart.  As a group, the greatest fault of those people is they are running mostly because they think it would be fun to be a delegate at the convention.  That’s their greatest fault.  How we could go wrong with a delegation like that, I don’t know.  Pass the bottle, and move to close!

The take away point from all this is what?  That when it comes to electing the president of the United States, Republicans have to do lots of research and attempt to guess who might best reflect their values by proxy.  If you wanted to design a system concentrating power and influence in the hands of people with roles the public doesn’t understand, this is it.

That’s not the way I think things should be done.  You?

Bob Casey Endorses Obama

What a weasel.

Bob Casey, you may or may not know, has not met an issue or controversy on which he can avoid fleeing, lest he reveal his characteristically equivocating and vapid core.

So after insisting he would avoid endorsing a presidential candidate, he changed his mind.  And rather than endorse the candidate the large majority of his constituents tends to prefer, he decided to boldly get behind the national front-runner, apparently hoping to curry favor with St. Barack and lessen Clinton’s eventual victory in Pennsylvania

Of course, the percentage of people who really care about Bob Casey’s opinion is only marginally higher than the percentage of people– like me– who think much more highly of McCain because Phil Gramm is a close adviser.

Casey is, again, such a weasel.

Ten Most Important Superdelegates

Jim Geraghty at NRO has compiled a nice list— with a little commentary– on the ten most important democratic superdelegates.

No. 1 with a bullet is our old friend Al Gore.  Of course, all those in the know suspect there’s a small but real chance that Gore will still end up being the nominee…

Democrat Superdelegate Update

The page on this site tracking PA’s superdelegates has some updates informed by Josh’s ruminatin’ here.  No new commitments, just noting a few leans.

Josh’s post is especially amusing, as he feigns confusion over Sen. Casey’s tentativeness is supporting a candidate.  What?  Casey is unable to boldly articulate an opinion on something?  Why, that’s as rare as the Phillies having a mediocre April!

[note for out of towners: the Phillies always suck in April]

Superdelegates and Electability

Clouds of pixels and barrels of ink are emitted on speculation as to how democrat superdelegates will vote, and what criteria they will use to inform that vote.

We hear from them that “electability” is important.  What most of those superdelegates mean to do when they cast this line of thought is have the listeners own mind catch upon Ms. Clinton’s fairly impressive negatives. If I were a superdelegate disposed to support Obama, though, I would probably stop this justification.

Look at the following poll data is three key swing states both parties covet in the general election.  Who do you think is more electable amongst the two democrat candidates for president?

PENNSYLVANIA

Poll

Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 02/21 – 03/10 44.6 42.4 10.8 McCain +2.2
Rasmussen 03/10 – 03/10 500 LV 44 43 13 McCain +1.0
Susquehanna 03/05 – 03/10 700 RV 45 41 10 McCain +4.0
Strategic Vision (R) 03/07 – 03/09 1,200 LV 47 44 9 McCain +3.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 608 RV 47 42 10 McCain +5.0
Quinnipiac 02/21 – 02/25 1872 RV 40 42 12 Obama +2.0

Poll

Date Sample Clinton (D) McCain (R) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/05 – 03/18 46.0 46.7 4.8 McCain +0.7
CBS News 03/15 – 03/18 RV 46 44 6 Clinton +2.0
CNN 03/14 – 03/16 950 RV 49 47 Clinton +2.0
USA Today/Gallup 03/14 – 03/15 685 LV 51 46 2 Clinton +5.0
Reuters/Zogby 03/13 – 03/14 1004 LV 40 48 McCain +8.0
NBC/WSJ 03/07 – 03/10 1,012 RV 47 45 4 Clinton +2.0
Cook/RT Strategies 03/06 – 03/09 802 RV 45 47 6 McCain +2.0
Newsweek 03/05 – 03/06 1,215 RV 48 46 Clinton +2.0
Gallup (Wed) 5 Day Tracking 4376 RV 45 48 3 McCain +3.0
Rasmussen (Wed) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 43 49 8 McCain +6.0

OHIO

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/13 – 03/17 48.3 41.3 10.3 McCain +7.0
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/17 629 LV 49 41 10 McCain +8.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 – 03/16 532 RV 50 43 7 McCain +7.0
Rasmussen 03/13 – 03/13 500 LV 46 40 14 McCain +6.0

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/13 – 03/17 44.7 45.0 10.3 Clinton +0.3
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/17 629 LV 44 45 11 Clinton +1.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 – 03/16 532 RV 44 50 6 Clinton +6.0
Rasmussen 03/13 – 03/13 500 LV 46 40 14 McCain +6.0
 

FLORIDA

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 02/21 – 03/16 47.8 41.0 11.3 McCain +6.8
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/16 618 LV 50 39 11 McCain +11.0
Rasmussen 03/12 – 03/12 500 LV 47 43 10 McCain +4.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 632 RV 47 45 8 McCain +2.0
Mason-Dixon 02/21 – 02/24 625 RV 47 37 16 McCain +10.0
 

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 02/21 – 03/16 46.3 43.5 10.3 McCain +2.8
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/16 618 LV 47 43 10 McCain +4.0
Rasmussen 03/12 – 03/12 500 LV 47 40 13 McCain +7.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 633 RV 42 51 7 Clinton +9.0
Mason-Dixon 02/21 – 02/24 625 RV 49 40 11 McCain +9.0
 

Murtha to Back Clinton

Hillary has notched another PA superdelegate:  US Rep. John Murtha.  This should burnish her anti-Iraq War bona fides some.

Seems to me with Rev. Wright thing is not going to blow over easily for St. Barack.  Perhaps a superdelegate-enabled win for her is not beyond the pale.  I mean, there are lots of folks unsurprised by Wright’s hyperventilating.  When I worked downtown there would be a group of African American religious nuts outside suburban station with a P/A every Friday, when the weather was warm, yelling pretty much the exact same stuff to passing commuters who would ignore them the same way they ignore panhandlers.

But all those blue-collar union types in the Democratic party surely have a problem with that type of rhetoric.  Especially since part of Obama’s appeal is that he was supposed to get us past that sort of thing.

Dem Superdelegates Who Hold Political Office Trending Obama

Democratic superdelegates will decide the nomination.  Furthermore, as noted here, they don’t generally see their role as simply validating whoever has the lead in pledged delegates.

That said, according this piece on Bloomberg.com [ht K-Lo in the Corner] recent superdelegate momentum has been towards St. Barack.  Anecdotally, it still seems electability is the main concern.

Who’s electability, though?  This recent momentum for Obama seems to be mostly from superdelegates that are also pols seeking votes.  Importantly, it seems to be from pols seeking votes with constituencies that have bought into the numinous Obama’s campaign of change you can merely hope will arrive in the fullness of time endured through faith in St. Barack’s facility in immanentizing the eschaton.

So these recent superdelegates are moving towards Obama simply because they want to avoid a primary challenge.  In practice, they are merely validating the pledged delegate count, which is precisely what they seem to claim they shouldn’t do.

I guess the real question is what the superdelegates who don’t hold elective office do.