Category Archives: Hillary

PA Primary Results: Hillary Wins Big, GOP Delegate Picture a Mess

First thoughts:  Well, Hillary won by 10.  I guess that means this superdelegate tracking is going to have to continue for a while.

Regarding the GOP delegate races, those results are a little spread out over the interwebs, so will require some time to aggregate.  My favored candidate for my district– Jim McHale– did not win, but he did OK.  Interestingly, in my district well-known insider Ken Davis, about whom many are less than enthused, was included on the GOP sample ballot as an endorsed delegate at the last second absent any appropriate vote, at least as far as this committeeman is aware.

While Mr. Davis did not win, he did siphon off 1300 votes which affected the ultimate results.  There could be an explanation for this, but the most thorough one I’ve heard thus far is there was a “mix-up”, so an endorsement fell upon him by fiat, like manna from heaven.  This will require more investigation.  A very polite e-mail to the chairman of the Chester County GOP has thus far gone unanswered.

As for the rest of the Commonwealth, I believe there are at least some unendorsed delegates who have been elected, and not all of them are Paul-bearers.  As Mr. Drudge says, developing…

Bob Casey Endorses Obama

What a weasel.

Bob Casey, you may or may not know, has not met an issue or controversy on which he can avoid fleeing, lest he reveal his characteristically equivocating and vapid core.

So after insisting he would avoid endorsing a presidential candidate, he changed his mind.  And rather than endorse the candidate the large majority of his constituents tends to prefer, he decided to boldly get behind the national front-runner, apparently hoping to curry favor with St. Barack and lessen Clinton’s eventual victory in Pennsylvania

Of course, the percentage of people who really care about Bob Casey’s opinion is only marginally higher than the percentage of people– like me– who think much more highly of McCain because Phil Gramm is a close adviser.

Casey is, again, such a weasel.

Superdelegates and Electability

Clouds of pixels and barrels of ink are emitted on speculation as to how democrat superdelegates will vote, and what criteria they will use to inform that vote.

We hear from them that “electability” is important.  What most of those superdelegates mean to do when they cast this line of thought is have the listeners own mind catch upon Ms. Clinton’s fairly impressive negatives. If I were a superdelegate disposed to support Obama, though, I would probably stop this justification.

Look at the following poll data is three key swing states both parties covet in the general election.  Who do you think is more electable amongst the two democrat candidates for president?

PENNSYLVANIA

Poll

Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 02/21 – 03/10 44.6 42.4 10.8 McCain +2.2
Rasmussen 03/10 – 03/10 500 LV 44 43 13 McCain +1.0
Susquehanna 03/05 – 03/10 700 RV 45 41 10 McCain +4.0
Strategic Vision (R) 03/07 – 03/09 1,200 LV 47 44 9 McCain +3.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 608 RV 47 42 10 McCain +5.0
Quinnipiac 02/21 – 02/25 1872 RV 40 42 12 Obama +2.0

Poll

Date Sample Clinton (D) McCain (R) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/05 – 03/18 46.0 46.7 4.8 McCain +0.7
CBS News 03/15 – 03/18 RV 46 44 6 Clinton +2.0
CNN 03/14 – 03/16 950 RV 49 47 Clinton +2.0
USA Today/Gallup 03/14 – 03/15 685 LV 51 46 2 Clinton +5.0
Reuters/Zogby 03/13 – 03/14 1004 LV 40 48 McCain +8.0
NBC/WSJ 03/07 – 03/10 1,012 RV 47 45 4 Clinton +2.0
Cook/RT Strategies 03/06 – 03/09 802 RV 45 47 6 McCain +2.0
Newsweek 03/05 – 03/06 1,215 RV 48 46 Clinton +2.0
Gallup (Wed) 5 Day Tracking 4376 RV 45 48 3 McCain +3.0
Rasmussen (Wed) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 43 49 8 McCain +6.0

OHIO

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/13 – 03/17 48.3 41.3 10.3 McCain +7.0
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/17 629 LV 49 41 10 McCain +8.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 – 03/16 532 RV 50 43 7 McCain +7.0
Rasmussen 03/13 – 03/13 500 LV 46 40 14 McCain +6.0

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/13 – 03/17 44.7 45.0 10.3 Clinton +0.3
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/17 629 LV 44 45 11 Clinton +1.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 – 03/16 532 RV 44 50 6 Clinton +6.0
Rasmussen 03/13 – 03/13 500 LV 46 40 14 McCain +6.0
 

FLORIDA

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 02/21 – 03/16 47.8 41.0 11.3 McCain +6.8
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/16 618 LV 50 39 11 McCain +11.0
Rasmussen 03/12 – 03/12 500 LV 47 43 10 McCain +4.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 632 RV 47 45 8 McCain +2.0
Mason-Dixon 02/21 – 02/24 625 RV 47 37 16 McCain +10.0
 

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 02/21 – 03/16 46.3 43.5 10.3 McCain +2.8
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/16 618 LV 47 43 10 McCain +4.0
Rasmussen 03/12 – 03/12 500 LV 47 40 13 McCain +7.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 633 RV 42 51 7 Clinton +9.0
Mason-Dixon 02/21 – 02/24 625 RV 49 40 11 McCain +9.0
 

Murtha to Back Clinton

Hillary has notched another PA superdelegate:  US Rep. John Murtha.  This should burnish her anti-Iraq War bona fides some.

Seems to me with Rev. Wright thing is not going to blow over easily for St. Barack.  Perhaps a superdelegate-enabled win for her is not beyond the pale.  I mean, there are lots of folks unsurprised by Wright’s hyperventilating.  When I worked downtown there would be a group of African American religious nuts outside suburban station with a P/A every Friday, when the weather was warm, yelling pretty much the exact same stuff to passing commuters who would ignore them the same way they ignore panhandlers.

But all those blue-collar union types in the Democratic party surely have a problem with that type of rhetoric.  Especially since part of Obama’s appeal is that he was supposed to get us past that sort of thing.

IA Delegates for Edwards May Take My Advice. Sort of.

Iowa has a habit of kicking off our primary party.  What didn’t used to matter is the fact the caucus delegates determined back in the dead of winter don’t become officially determined until this Saturday.

Hillary, you may recall, finished third in those winter caucuses.  This inspired her to start an anti-caucus tune in the aftermath, which she has turned into a refrain sure to become as much an ohrwurm as persistent as “All Your Base Are Belong To Us“.  Obama wins caucuses.  Hillary doesn’t.  So Hillary thinks caucuses are anti-democratic.  I happen to agree.

This rubs those Iowans the wrong way, though, and now Hillary wouldn’t mind peeling off those Edwards delegates when they get locked in tomorrow at the Iowa State Democratic Convention.

Turns out, according to this report in the NY Daily News, those delegates pledged to Edwards may just come out of the state convention sticking with the pretty trial lawyer.  And why shouldn’t they?  That’s who a number of Iowans supported, right?

Would it me importunate of me to point out, here, how awesome it would be if people just all had a change to vote for their party’s nominee, and we counted the votes, and nominated the winner?

Dem Superdelegates Who Hold Political Office Trending Obama

Democratic superdelegates will decide the nomination.  Furthermore, as noted here, they don’t generally see their role as simply validating whoever has the lead in pledged delegates.

That said, according this piece on Bloomberg.com [ht K-Lo in the Corner] recent superdelegate momentum has been towards St. Barack.  Anecdotally, it still seems electability is the main concern.

Who’s electability, though?  This recent momentum for Obama seems to be mostly from superdelegates that are also pols seeking votes.  Importantly, it seems to be from pols seeking votes with constituencies that have bought into the numinous Obama’s campaign of change you can merely hope will arrive in the fullness of time endured through faith in St. Barack’s facility in immanentizing the eschaton.

So these recent superdelegates are moving towards Obama simply because they want to avoid a primary challenge.  In practice, they are merely validating the pledged delegate count, which is precisely what they seem to claim they shouldn’t do.

I guess the real question is what the superdelegates who don’t hold elective office do.

Alternate Headline for Spitzer Affair:

Clinton superdelegate caught with pants down.

Subhead:

Bill’s testosterone found more contagious than malaria.