Category Archives: Uncategorized

Are You The One in Twenty That Matters?

About one out of every twenty Democrats or Republicans has a significant say on who their party’s nominee for president is going to be.  What is this?  Iron Curtain Bulgaria?

Live in DE and wanted to vote for Biden?  Live in NJ and felt like helping to ensure Giuliani had a few delegates?  If so, your national party representatives  think it’s way more important to count New Hampshire Republicans voting for Obama, and Michigan Democrats voting for McCain. 

Thus far, according to data at CNN.com’s election center, about 6,461,335 people have casted ballots in primary elections.  I am not counting caucus votes in IA, WY, LA, and NV.  The latter two, at least some will say, are pretty corrupt.  Ask Ron Paul and Ms. Clinton.  If I’m going to toss those out, though, I figure I should toss the other caususes out as well.

So about 6.4 million people have thus far cast votes in actual presidential primaries, about 3.1m Dems and 3.3m GOP voters.  These are the regular folks who walked to their normal polling place and exercised their right to small-r republican representation.

In 2004 there were, according to census data here, 142 million people registered to vote, with about 89% of them actually voting.

Let’s assume about one fifth of those registered voters are not registered to one of the two major parties.  This is a standard rule of thumb.

That gives us 113.6m major party voters who are pretty evenly split, marginally trending towards democrats.  So about 56m in the GOP, and 57.6m Democrats.

These numbers give us this table:

04 Registered Voters 08 Primary Votes Cast % of Voters Enfranchised
Dem 57,600,000 3,088,734 5.36%
GOP 56,000,000 3,372,601 6.02%

And remember, those numbers are inflated by independents.  Granted, this miscarriage of simple governing logic needs to ultimately be laid at the insensate feet of our national parties, not the government more broadly.

Keep this in mind the next time you wonder why the Dems and GOP cannot find candidates that satisfy those actually registered to the party.  It appears the parties want it that way.

Of course, your milage may vary with your local party committees.  Mine seems pretty strong and representative at the local level.  Big ups to Bob Tigro!  But that strength declines as we move up the food chain.  In fact, I imagine the experience I am about to have advocating for a reform of this system will make that blindingly clear.

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Live In the Solution

This is no time for nihilism or defeatism.  As this blog will spend a fair amount of time bashing all the candidates currently running for President, I should make this clear:  The country has muddled through worse, and all the current candidates have something to recommend them.

The problem is, on the GOP side supporters of allof the original five or so original candidates had the suspicion that we could have done better.  As for the Dems, I suggest if the Clinton machine does in Obama you will see an eruption the American Right is unable to muster.

The first step I think we need to take to begin solving this problem is changing our Byzantine and financially ruinous primary scheme.  The best thing we can do now, it seems to me, is to encourage all remaining primary voters to find a way to select “uncommitted” or “none of the above” on their presidential primary ballots.

Chester County GOP Committee Meeting; Rudy, McCain, and Romney

There were some Mitt folks at the Chester County GOP endorsement meeting last night.  Some McCain folks as well.

Alas, there were no Rudy people.

I guess every single person on the campaign is currently getting a sunburned face in the Sunshine State.  Many polls have Hizzoner slipping there, but some still have him strong, including a recent Rassmussen poll.  

Also, early voting is huge in FL, not just for folks that are out of town, but for folks for whom a trip to a polling place is something of a chore.  When most of those votes were cast Hizzoner had a dominating lead in the polls.  Current polling does not take this into account.  Conventional wisdom seems to be that Rudy is in trouble.  It would be dishonest to say that is entirely untrue, but this pundit thinks that is an underestimation.

I chatted last night with my retiring State Rep. Carol Rubley.  She remembered I cared about moving up the primary, and pointed out that ours might matter after all.  I pointed out that this presidential race is as competitive as it gets, and the liklihood of our primary mattering is still miniscule.

As an aside, please feel free to e-mail me if you have any interest in supporting Guy Ciarrocchi [no web site yet] as he runs for her seat, or Admiral Steve Kantrowitz as he takes on Andy Dinniman.  Rubley and Dinniman, by the way, were both people with fairly casual views about how important it is for you to cast a presidential primary vote that matters.

The e-mail, again, is karlub at yahoo dot com.

If You Care, Open Up The Wallet

Well, if you care about your primary vote counting in PA, it is time to open up your wallet and give Team Giuliani some cash for FL and Tsunami Tuesday.

Link here!

 Give early, give often.

Calling all SE PA Volunteers

I’m working on putting together some road trips to do a little retail politicking for the Tsunami Tuesday primaries in Delaware and New Jersey. Southern part of the state for the latter.

Wanna’ help?  Enjoy the laugh a minute hilarity of retail politics?

If so, e-mail me at karlub at yahoo dot com.

MI Debate Analysis Can be Found…

here.

If Only Rudy Were Helping Me Fish…

Sorry about the unannounced absence.  I’m sure many of you were trembling at the prospect of losing this valuable resource for learning about the Giuliani campaign as it relates to Pennsylvania.

Well, I was just in Florida for a week.  I could have blogged while there, but I didn’t really feel tapped into the PA zeitgeist, and I was too busy immediately before the trip to warn you.  Sorry.

I was here, by the way, in Sanibel Island.  I read three books– a mystery, some dystopian sci-fi, and some Christian apologetics, and I napped, swam, and cooked.  I also fished with limited success.  If Rudy Giuliani were from a more rural area I am sure he would be an excellent fisherman and he could have provided better support and leadership.  Alas, he did not, and fish did not tremble at the sound of my voice.