Democrat Superdelegate Update

The page on this site tracking PA’s superdelegates has some updates informed by Josh’s ruminatin’ here.  No new commitments, just noting a few leans.

Josh’s post is especially amusing, as he feigns confusion over Sen. Casey’s tentativeness is supporting a candidate.  What?  Casey is unable to boldly articulate an opinion on something?  Why, that’s as rare as the Phillies having a mediocre April!

[note for out of towners: the Phillies always suck in April]

Superdelegates and Electability

Clouds of pixels and barrels of ink are emitted on speculation as to how democrat superdelegates will vote, and what criteria they will use to inform that vote.

We hear from them that “electability” is important.  What most of those superdelegates mean to do when they cast this line of thought is have the listeners own mind catch upon Ms. Clinton’s fairly impressive negatives. If I were a superdelegate disposed to support Obama, though, I would probably stop this justification.

Look at the following poll data is three key swing states both parties covet in the general election.  Who do you think is more electable amongst the two democrat candidates for president?

PENNSYLVANIA

Poll

Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 02/21 – 03/10 44.6 42.4 10.8 McCain +2.2
Rasmussen 03/10 – 03/10 500 LV 44 43 13 McCain +1.0
Susquehanna 03/05 – 03/10 700 RV 45 41 10 McCain +4.0
Strategic Vision (R) 03/07 – 03/09 1,200 LV 47 44 9 McCain +3.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 608 RV 47 42 10 McCain +5.0
Quinnipiac 02/21 – 02/25 1872 RV 40 42 12 Obama +2.0

Poll

Date Sample Clinton (D) McCain (R) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/05 – 03/18 46.0 46.7 4.8 McCain +0.7
CBS News 03/15 – 03/18 RV 46 44 6 Clinton +2.0
CNN 03/14 – 03/16 950 RV 49 47 Clinton +2.0
USA Today/Gallup 03/14 – 03/15 685 LV 51 46 2 Clinton +5.0
Reuters/Zogby 03/13 – 03/14 1004 LV 40 48 McCain +8.0
NBC/WSJ 03/07 – 03/10 1,012 RV 47 45 4 Clinton +2.0
Cook/RT Strategies 03/06 – 03/09 802 RV 45 47 6 McCain +2.0
Newsweek 03/05 – 03/06 1,215 RV 48 46 Clinton +2.0
Gallup (Wed) 5 Day Tracking 4376 RV 45 48 3 McCain +3.0
Rasmussen (Wed) 4 Day Tracking 1700 LV 43 49 8 McCain +6.0

OHIO

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/13 – 03/17 48.3 41.3 10.3 McCain +7.0
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/17 629 LV 49 41 10 McCain +8.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 – 03/16 532 RV 50 43 7 McCain +7.0
Rasmussen 03/13 – 03/13 500 LV 46 40 14 McCain +6.0

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 03/13 – 03/17 44.7 45.0 10.3 Clinton +0.3
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/17 629 LV 44 45 11 Clinton +1.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 – 03/16 532 RV 44 50 6 Clinton +6.0
Rasmussen 03/13 – 03/13 500 LV 46 40 14 McCain +6.0
 

FLORIDA

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 02/21 – 03/16 47.8 41.0 11.3 McCain +6.8
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/16 618 LV 50 39 11 McCain +11.0
Rasmussen 03/12 – 03/12 500 LV 47 43 10 McCain +4.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 632 RV 47 45 8 McCain +2.0
Mason-Dixon 02/21 – 02/24 625 RV 47 37 16 McCain +10.0
 

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Und Spread
RCP Average 02/21 – 03/16 46.3 43.5 10.3 McCain +2.8
PPP (D) 03/15 – 03/16 618 LV 47 43 10 McCain +4.0
Rasmussen 03/12 – 03/12 500 LV 47 40 13 McCain +7.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 633 RV 42 51 7 Clinton +9.0
Mason-Dixon 02/21 – 02/24 625 RV 49 40 11 McCain +9.0
 

Murtha to Back Clinton

Hillary has notched another PA superdelegate:  US Rep. John Murtha.  This should burnish her anti-Iraq War bona fides some.

Seems to me with Rev. Wright thing is not going to blow over easily for St. Barack.  Perhaps a superdelegate-enabled win for her is not beyond the pale.  I mean, there are lots of folks unsurprised by Wright’s hyperventilating.  When I worked downtown there would be a group of African American religious nuts outside suburban station with a P/A every Friday, when the weather was warm, yelling pretty much the exact same stuff to passing commuters who would ignore them the same way they ignore panhandlers.

But all those blue-collar union types in the Democratic party surely have a problem with that type of rhetoric.  Especially since part of Obama’s appeal is that he was supposed to get us past that sort of thing.

IA Delegates for Edwards May Take My Advice. Sort of.

Iowa has a habit of kicking off our primary party.  What didn’t used to matter is the fact the caucus delegates determined back in the dead of winter don’t become officially determined until this Saturday.

Hillary, you may recall, finished third in those winter caucuses.  This inspired her to start an anti-caucus tune in the aftermath, which she has turned into a refrain sure to become as much an ohrwurm as persistent as “All Your Base Are Belong To Us“.  Obama wins caucuses.  Hillary doesn’t.  So Hillary thinks caucuses are anti-democratic.  I happen to agree.

This rubs those Iowans the wrong way, though, and now Hillary wouldn’t mind peeling off those Edwards delegates when they get locked in tomorrow at the Iowa State Democratic Convention.

Turns out, according to this report in the NY Daily News, those delegates pledged to Edwards may just come out of the state convention sticking with the pretty trial lawyer.  And why shouldn’t they?  That’s who a number of Iowans supported, right?

Would it me importunate of me to point out, here, how awesome it would be if people just all had a change to vote for their party’s nominee, and we counted the votes, and nominated the winner?

Dem Superdelegates Who Hold Political Office Trending Obama

Democratic superdelegates will decide the nomination.  Furthermore, as noted here, they don’t generally see their role as simply validating whoever has the lead in pledged delegates.

That said, according this piece on Bloomberg.com [ht K-Lo in the Corner] recent superdelegate momentum has been towards St. Barack.  Anecdotally, it still seems electability is the main concern.

Who’s electability, though?  This recent momentum for Obama seems to be mostly from superdelegates that are also pols seeking votes.  Importantly, it seems to be from pols seeking votes with constituencies that have bought into the numinous Obama’s campaign of change you can merely hope will arrive in the fullness of time endured through faith in St. Barack’s facility in immanentizing the eschaton.

So these recent superdelegates are moving towards Obama simply because they want to avoid a primary challenge.  In practice, they are merely validating the pledged delegate count, which is precisely what they seem to claim they shouldn’t do.

I guess the real question is what the superdelegates who don’t hold elective office do.

Stopped Clock Still Right Twice a Day

Clinton supporter fast Eddie Rendell happens to think caucuses are pretty undemocratic.  [ht Keystone Politics] It pains me to agree with Rendell, but at least I can take comfort in the fact that he is likely to change his mind, especially if his marching orders eventually come from St. Barack.

GOP Superdelegate Project; Time; Local Campaigns

Dedicated readers will have noticed an interruption in my GOP superdelegate project.  To refresh your memory, I am endeavoring to make a matter of public record all people running to be GOP delegates from Pennsylvania to the national convention, and how they plan to dispose of their responsibilities there.

This is necessary because they are uncommitted, and the GOP seems pretty uninterested in providing this information to regular GOP voters.  You know, those people the party expects to pull straight GOP tickets with the same circumspection drunk grandmothers use at slot machines in Atlantic City.

Alas, both work and alternate political interests have slowed me down.  Among those interests are working for the GOP candidates in my area:  Admiral Steve Kantrowitz for PA Senate 19, Mr. Guy Ciarrocchi in PA House 157, and Representative Gerlach.  You will soon find links to their sites on the right.  Please note Guy’s official campaign site is not up just yet.

I resolve, though, to have a roughly complete list by the end of the month, giving voters three weeks to find it.  To that end, though, if anyone feels like helping, please get in touch at karlub at yahoo dot com.