Hillary Campaign Missing Important Part of Superdelegate Message

Jonah Goldberg over on NRO made an incisive observation this morning on The Corner regarding a vacuum in the Clinton’s campaign’s messaging.

It is well known it is pretty much impossible for Clinton to win enough pledged democratic delegates to mathematically ensure victory on the Democratic Convention.  This is why Harold Ickes apparently now has an 80 hour a week job at Clinton campaign HQ devoted to superdelegate lobbying.

What is less well known is the same math applies to Obama.  Neither candidate has a realistic chance of securing enough pledged delegates to render the super-delegates superfluous.

Since it seems likely Hillary will have less pledged delegates, though, Goldberg observes that her campaign should find a way to insert a defence of superdelegates into the answer of every question put to them.  More specifically, a defense of why it is appropriate for them to vote for Clinton when their state voted for Obama.

If someone asks them about Pakistan, their answer should be “Ms. Clinton is the only Democrat candidate with any foreign policy experience, which is why it would be entirely appropriate for superdelegates to take this experience into consideration when casting their votes.

If asked about global warming, they should answer “Ms. Clinton has remained close with Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore, and as such is a thought leader on climate change, which is why superdelegates who value the environment are seriously considering favoring Ms. Clinton.”

If asked about electability, they should say “Ms. Clinton is a veteran of countering the right wing attack machine, and super-delegates who are veterans in fighting for change know this and owe their constituencies the benefit of that experience, which obviously would entail support of Ms. Clinton.”

If asked about Socks the cat, they should say “Socks and Buddy [the dog] always got along under Ms. Clinton’s guidance, proving Hillary can bring together Israel and Palestine, and it is the job of superdelegates to admire and reward such an ability to foster reconciliation, which is an ability often undervalued in heated political contests.”

Some of their minions are indeed making this case.  Here we have Harold Ickes on it, and here we have warmare Geraldine Ferraro.  The brazen case of Ferraro really shows off her brass ovaries.  Her basic point is not all that many Democrats actually vote in primaries, so those results aren’t really representative.  The superdelegates, she says, are better able to represent the overall best interests of the party, and that’s really what all Democrats should care about.

That’s what I’m beginning to learn about political parties, by the way.  I always thought their main goal was to organize to represent their members and hopefully win elections.  It seems somewhere along the line their main goal actually became to represent the best interests of the party itself.  That usually means winning elections, but not always.

And what is actually the right thing to do hardly ever comes up.

PA Democratic Superdelegate Movement: Clinton Rules As More Commit

For the following, thanks go to Josh at The Morning Call, and his western compatriots at the Pittsburgh Post Gazette.

There’s been some PA Democratic super-delegate shuffling, with Hillary adding a couple, losing one to undecided, and Obama adding one.  In the end, though, Ms. Clinton still dominates the field 13 to 3.  As always, this is the page with the running count for both the Democratic superdelegates, and the GOP delegation candidates.

The one Obama added was, according to the Inky, Philadelphia Councilwoman and DNC member Carole Ann Campbell.  Here she is with Bill in happier times for the Clintons:

She chatted with Michelle Obama for about 90 minutes, and apparently agreed that nothing much has happened in America over the last twenty years inspiring pride of country.  At least of this country.

Clinton Underfiled Her Pledged PA Delegates

Pennsylvania political guru and my rabbi on matters procedural, Terry Madonna, indirectly pointed out an article to me on how badly the Clinton campaign is scrambling here in Pennsylvania.

This piece indicates the recent petition extension by Ed Rendell had nothing to do with the weather and everything to do with the Clinton campaign’s incompetence.

Last week all primary petitions were due in Pennsylvania.  The weather was iffy in spots, but I drive a hinky Saab with 120k miles on it with only one headlight, and I managed to get my petitions in on time.

The Clinton campaign, though, did not manage to get a full slate of their pledged delegate petitions in on time.  Clinton supporter and Governor Ed Rendell gifted them a deadline extension, and they still ended up 10% short.

This does not affect the math any, as party rules indicate they will still get whatever is their due.  Still…Clinton has staked her campaign on success in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  And this is the best they can muster?  Was everyone huddling on how best to manufacture specious plagiarism charges on Obama?

In the PA GOP presidential primary, delegate candidates are not attached to anyone, and have to run around under their own steam to get necessary signatures for their petitions.  Almost as many signatures as a representative in the General Assembly has to get!

The GOP overfiled by over 300% with over 190 delegates for 62 slots.  Clinton underfiled– after an extension– by 10%.

To steal Terry’s quip, maybe Hillary could borrow some of the GOP’s delegates.

Democrats as Unhinged as PA GOP

Did you think pledged democratic delegates were, you know, legally bound to reflect the will of the voters?  If so, you may join me at a lovely table reserved under the name “Naive”.

Here Roger Simon discusses how Team Clinton is beginning to investigate turning delegates to the Democratic Convention already pledged to Obama.  Apparently those delegates are as obligated to reflect the will of their constituents as I am legally obligated to tithe to the Lutheran Church, ie not very.

Does anyone really dispute the necessity of reforming how the major parties nominate presidential candidates?  Does anyone really want this fubar to happen again?

Gore on Ballot Two?

What if the democratic superdelegates decide to not decide?  What if on ballot number one, choosing between Clinton and Obama, they choose to abstain?  Absurd?  Maybe.  In that case, though, it is possible neither one of them would have enough votes to secure the nomination.  This idea is apparently being kicked around [ht Derb at NRO] amongst some of them, with the ultimate goal being an introduction of Al Gore on the second ballot with Obama as his veep.

Hey, he has won the Nobel Peace Prize.  He has national security bona fides.  Obama as his veep would be a shoo-in eight years hence in the unlikely event things went well.  Isn’t this almost exactly what those super-delegates are supposed to be there for?  I know if I were a democratic super-delegate I would find this scenario very, very attractive.

Hillary: The New George Wallace

Georgian congressmen John Lewis and David Scott have both endorsed Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic nominee for president.  According to this piece in The Nation, though, they have both decided to cast their superdelegate votes for Obama, as their districts overwhelmingly supported the senator from Illinois.

It so happens they are both African American.

It remains tough to read these tea leaves.  On the one hand, it supports Ramesh Ponnuru’s point that it is unlikely the super-delegates will contravene the will of their constituents.  On the other hand, it is understood that it is in Clinton’s best interests to play her own bigoted “southern strategy” and paint Obama as the “black” candidate.  So perhaps they secretly welcome the desertion of a few of the tanner superdelegates.

The latter strategy was most gallingly displayed when Clinton supporter Fast Eddie Rendell of Pennsylvania recently opined that some white folks upstate just can’t vote for a black guy.  This, of course, despite the fact Fast Eddie owes his Pennsylvania electoral margins to percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs that resemble Kruschev’s, rather than a dominating performance in the allegedly racist hinterlands. [ht on the link to Bob Guzzardi]

PA, Race, and Obama + Dueling Democratic Superdelegate Punditry

It has been noted in a variety of places on the wild, woolly world wide webs that Obama wins states that are mostly black, and mostly white.  Things become a bit of a crap-shoot for him when he deals with racially balanced states.

The thinking goes like this:  In a place like South Carolina, the African American population acts like Democrat versions of Patrick Buchanan’s ‘angry citizens with pitchforks.’  In mostly white states, pale liberals all march in lockstep to vote for St. Barack to expiate their racial guilt.

In racially balanced states, though, whites have second thoughts about supporting the ‘black’ candidate, because of the “brothers and sisters are running the city” dynamic.  This dynamic is in Hillary’s favor.  She wants Obama to be portrayed as the ‘black’ candidate in comparatively racially balanced places like Pennsylvania, Texas, and Ohio.

Ed Rendell suggesting some white people just won’t vote for a black guy was not an example of Rendell’s alleged penchant for honesty.  This was a Clinton supporter stoking the racial unrest that benefits his political patron.

As a counterattack, white former PA Lt. Governor Mark Singel is holding a press conference right now announcing his leap aboard the Obama bandwagon.  It will be interesting to see if any Pennsylvania Democratic super-delegates decide to take this opportunity to take the leap with him.

Rush Limbaugh suggests these democratic superdelegates will be critical.  Hillary’s “testicle lockbox” is large, and Clinton ore runs deep in the bedrock of the democratic establishment.  A close delegate count, he says, and the fix will be in for Hillary.  Ramesh Ponnuru, on the other hand, thinks it is GOP wishful thinking to imagine those super-delegates will intentionally bring about a controversial trainwreck.

Rush is usually right.  Ramesh, though, does an admirable job of keeping his head and reining in enthusiastically galloping punditry.  This blogger is not sure who to believe.

Bloodbath Coming in Democratic Nomination

Obama now has a delegate lead in the race to become the democratic presidential nominee.  He leads in pledged delegates, he leads when superdelegates who have declared a preference are included, and he still barely leads when Florida and Michigan are included, which the DNC previously rendered impotent for their impudence in moving up their primaries.

Hillary has an uphill battle.  Of course, she could just bow out for the good of the party….

Just kidding!

This analysis is courtesy of NBC Political Director Chuck Todd, link here because WordPress won’t let me embed this clip for some reason.

Will Florida and Michigan be included?  What will the super-delegates do?

Wouldn’t it be funny if it still turned out Pennsylvania’s primary doesn’t matter for the Democrats, too?  And wouldn’t it be nice if we had a system where people just voted for the major party’s nominees, we counted the votes, and then knew who won?

Don’t get me started on the inanity of computerized voting machines…

Meet Jason Rae: Democratic Superdelegate from Wisconsin

Jason Rae is a junior in college, and the youngest person ever elected to the Democratic National Committee.  As such, he is getting personal phone calls from Bill Clinton, John Kerry, and others.  He even had breakfast with Chelsea Clinton at the Marquette student union the other day!

Now, as super-delegates go, Jason is handling himself rather well.  He refuses to endorse before the Wisconsin primary, he’s been a senate page, and he seems to work his butt off for the party.  I will not be a voice in the chorus suggesting he’s uninformed or brainwashed, simply because of his age.  We may disagree on a lot, but I’ll wager he’s more informed than 99% of the population, and best he’s enough of a policy wonk to back me into a corner on an issue or two.

I will suggest, though, a system is broken if it’s prone to create images so surreal as Bill Clinton calling the cell phone of an ambitious young man who’s really good at social networking and making campaign signs, like a less sexy version of Tracy Flick in the movie Election.

Puts a bit of a different spin on this clip, don’t it? [ht ought to go to someone, but I can’t remember who.  Sorry!]

Watching that, I’d say the Clinton campaign can probably be confident of Jason’s support.  Feel free to prove me wrong, Jason!

Finally, take a look at this alleged picture of Jason.  I’m sure he’s going to turn out very handsome in a nebbbishy sort of way, but that photo is less than flattering.  Now take another look at how Chelsea’s turned out.  Now, I’m not saying it was appropriate for Shuster to suggest the Clinton’s were “pimping” out Chelsea.  But I certainly understand the thought.  Of course, I’m a blogger and he’s on TeeVee, so different rules.

But Chelsea is now 27 years old and playing politics.  I’m afraid Bill and Hillary are going to have to deal with the fact the ‘helpless daughter’ rules don’t apply anymore.

UPDATE:  See this post.  Apparently Jason would be unswayed by feminine charm…And it seems I was right.  Jason did turn out nebishly handsome.

Joe Lieberman No Longer Democratic Super-Delegate

You may have heard Joe Lieberman endorsed McCain for president.  For that apostasy, he will longer have his super-delegate vote at the Democrat National Convention.  [ht K-Lo at The Corner]

That is, of course, the prerogative of the Democratic National Committee.  It could be interesting, though, to see exactly where the line for such enforcement will be drawn.  They have now established they will enforce the Zell Miller rule– which was established when Democrat Miller endorsed Bush for president.  That seems reasonable.

One wonders, though, what other heresies will invoke the wrath of the DNC.  How about supporting the surge in Iraq?  Being against affirmative action?  Being for parental notification for underage girls seeking abortions?  Stay tuned.

I found especially rich this quotation from Connecticut Democratic Chairwoman Nancy DiNardo:  “He’s virtually turned his back on friends who did a lot for him over so many years.”  Like that rock-solid support in his primary race against Ned LaMont, I guess.

Also, according to that piece in the Yale Daily News, the breakdown of declared preferences for Democrat super-delegates in Connecticut– which will be updated on new the Democratic superdelegate page up top– is the following:

Total: 11

Obama: 6

Clinton: 1

Undeclared: 5

As the Tsunami Tuesday primary vote in Connecticut was much closer than this, we oddly discover that Ms. Clinton is actually getting screwed.

Finally, a note to Kathryn Baldwin of the Yale College Republicans, who thinks this super-delegate situation is “odd”, and Victor Zapana, the writer of the piece who says the GOP does not employ such a system:  In Pennsylvania, at least, the delegates could vote for George McGovern if they felt like it, and there’s nothing the GOP can do about it.